← Principles

Hedging

The market is brutal.

Relying on pure fundamentals to survive is a huge risk, especially as technology advances.

This is where hedging comes in.

By playing games that are (somewhat) insulated from free markets and nature, we avoid superlinear redundancy.

In this context, 'nature' becomes the rules of the game, and 'markets' become the human element.

The upside is a greater probability of survival. The downside is that the game might disappear — the core skills are retained, but the context becomes irrelevant, stopping our knowledge from compounding as smoothly.

Then, eventually, the incremental returns of the hedge are outweighed by the option of playing in the big leagues.

This can happen for two reasons:

1. The (absolute/practical) rewards of the hedge decrease

2. We build enough skills and runway to take on bigger challenges

In this way, we earn the right to deal in fundamentals.

Every step forward, no matter how mundane, gets us closer to true autonomy.

The person who commits to, masters, and transcends the game in front of them is inevitable, no matter where they start out.

As long as opportunities exist, nobody can stop us from working towards them.

Except, of course, ourselves.