Reality is rough.
We can’t change the laws of physics or human nature, no matter how hard we try.
Which explains why most jobs remain distanced from the real world. For every paramedic or door-to-door salesman, there are many other people sitting in meetings, far removed from these feedback mechanisms.
Why emphasise this difference?
Because it illustrates the link between risk and autonomy.
A junior doctor who networks and memorises his way into cardiology training is at the mercy of superiors, whereas a world-class engineer is valuable independent of any employer.
To create real value, we need to take real risk.
But risk implies downside. And as technology improves connectivity and scalability, it’s not hard to imagine the emergence of brutal, winner-takes-all markets.
Which is why it can pay to hedge our bets.
Nobody knows exactly how AI and robotics will change the world.
Maybe it renders fake, risk-free status games obsolete, or maybe the status game is all that’s left.
But by positioning ourselves to operate in either environment, we eliminate the need to predict the future.
Usually, hedging implies inefficiency.
It demands a greater investment of time and effort than other paths, often into highly perishable skills.
But fundamental skills are fundamental for a reason. With enough work, there's nothing stopping us from developing them, no matter the inefficiency.
Unless, of course, we go overboard.